All the three states have under-performed in the pre-Monsoon season till now. The state of Jammu and Kashmir is running deficient by 41%, Himachal Pradesh by 45% and Uttarakhand by 21%.
The last spell which affected the hills was on May 3 and 4, which was fairly widespread in intensity. While it rained allover the three states on May 3, on May 4 the rains were confined to Jammu and Kashmir. The weather had cleared by May 5, leading to dry weather conditions.
At present, the hills are enjoying a pleasant weather, with near normal temperatures. The same weather pattern is going to continue for the next 3 days as no significant weather system is seen affecting the hills at present.
Now, we expect rains to return over the hills once again on May 10. This upcoming spell will be a prolonged one lasting till May 15. The intensity of these rains would be moderate. One or two places might even observe heavy rains.
On May 13, a little retreat will be experienced before the rains begin once again. The second half would be even heavier. This upcoming rainy episode will cover all the three states.
The reason for these rains can be attributed to successive Western Disturbances and an induced Cyclonic Circulation.
Next weekend weather activity: These rains will mean a plunge in day temperatures over the area once again. All the hill stations like that of Pahalgam, Shimla, Gulmarg, Nainital and Srinagar are likely to get affected and would see extremely pleasant weather. In fact, it would be best time for the tourists to head to the hills stations, escaping hot weather in the plains. Source Skymetweather